Is XRP’s Rally Over? Network Trends Suggest a 25% Price Drop

Chart signals and onchain indicators are aligning to warn of a possible 25% decline in XRP price, putting the altcoin’s recent 385% rally in jeopardy.

Most XRP Accumulated Near Local Highs

More than 70% of XRP’s realized market cap was formed close to recent peak prices, resembling patterns seen during previous market tops. According to Glassnode, this accumulation occurred between late 2024 and early 2025.

The realized cap of younger coins—specifically those held for 3 to 6 months—has steadily increased since November 2024. This trend intensified after XRP reached its local high of $3.40 in January 2025.

Top-Heavy Markets Are Historically Fragile

When a majority of XRP is concentrated in newer investor wallets, the market becomes vulnerable to rapid sell-offs. In late 2017, a similar surge preceded a 95% drop. A repeat pattern in 2021 saw XRP fall by 80% after short-term holders dominated the realized cap.

This signals a potential local top forming in January 2025, with historical precedence hinting at further downside.

XRP’s Onchain Activity Plunges by Over 90%

In March 2025, XRP saw a huge spike in active addresses, but since then, network usage has plummeted more than 90%, falling back to pre-rally levels.

This steep decline in transactional activity suggests weakening demand. Historically, such divergences—where prices rise while onchain engagement falls—have occurred near market tops, including during major pullbacks in 2017 and 2021.

While not definitive, this drop in address activity indicates many holders may be idle, reducing liquidity and momentum.

XRP Chart Shows Falling Wedge Pattern

On the weekly chart, XRP has entered a consolidation phase within a falling wedge formation. The token recently failed to break above the upper trendline of this pattern.

This rejection signals a potential shift toward a correction cycle, with price possibly heading toward the wedge’s lower boundary.

Key Support Sits Near $1.76

The lower wedge trendline aligns with XRP’s 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), positioned around $1.76. A move to this level represents a potential 25% drop from current prices.

Unless XRP reclaims strong bullish momentum, the technical outlook suggests that further downside is likely in the short term.