Is XRP Price Set for Another Decline?

XRP’s price has surged over 40% from its April 7 low to reach around $2.50 by June 4. However, it still trades 37% below its January 2025 high of $3.40, prompting concerns about a potential new downturn.

NUPL Data Signals a Local XRP Price Top

On-chain analysis reveals that XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has entered the “Belief — Denial” zone, which often correlates with local price peaks.

Historically, this stage—marked by the 30-day simple moving average—indicates that many holders are in profit but may lack the resolve to endure volatility, leading to distribution and price declines.

In 2021, XRP reversed from a similar zone around $2 after failing to push into euphoria territory. If the current rebound fails to gain further momentum, a drop could follow soon.

Institutions Step Back from XRP Exposure

Data from CoinShares shows institutional interest in XRP-based investment products is falling.

In the final week of May, XRP ETPs saw $28.20 million in outflows, with total monthly outflows reaching $56.60 million.

In contrast, Ether, Solana, and Sui all posted net inflows of $321.40 million, $1.5 million, and $2.2 million, respectively, highlighting declining appetite for XRP among institutional investors.

XRP Chart Pattern Warns of 22–38% Price Drop

On June 4, XRP was pulling back after failing to break through the top resistance of a long-standing falling wedge pattern.

Historically, similar rejections have led to major corrections—like March’s 45% drop. This pattern suggests XRP could slide down to $1.78, roughly 22% below current levels. That level also aligns with the wedge’s lower boundary and the 50-week EMA.

In a more bearish case, XRP may drop to the wedge’s apex at $1.45—over 38% down.

Is a Bullish Breakout Still Possible?

Falling wedge formations are typically seen as bullish reversal patterns. If XRP decisively breaks the wedge’s upper boundary—currently near $2.23—the price could rally significantly.

Following the pattern’s measured move, this breakout could lift XRP toward $3.66, marking a new all-time high.