Bitwise maintains $200K Bitcoin target as dollar weakens under pressure
Despite escalating global trade tensions and economic uncertainty, investment firm Bitwise is reaffirming its bold Bitcoin price projection for 2025. According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, the predicted $200,000 year-end target is still realistic — even more so now that the United States appears to be shifting its stance on the strength of the dollar.
In a blog post dated April 9, Hougan noted that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which favor a weaker dollar, could benefit Bitcoin in the short and long term. He referenced a recent speech by Steve Miran, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, where Miran criticized the US dollar’s reserve status for creating economic distortions and harming American industry.
“Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,” says Hougan
Hougan emphasized that a weakening US dollar has historically coincided with strength in Bitcoin markets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against six major world currencies, has already declined over 7% since the start of 2025. Hougan sees this as a signal that Bitcoin could be gearing up for its next major leg upward.
He argues that Bitcoin tends to benefit from dollar instability due to its role as a hedge against fiat devaluation. “Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,” Hougan said, echoing a pattern observed during previous dips in the DXY.
Historical charts show that periods of declining DXY values often align with Bitcoin price increases. According to data from MacroMicro, these cycles suggest a strong inverse correlation, strengthening Bitwise’s current stance.
Global reserve shake-up favors Bitcoin and gold
Beyond short-term gains, Hougan pointed to deeper, long-term consequences of a weakening dollar. He predicted that the erosion of trust in the greenback as the world’s primary reserve currency will lead governments and corporations to seek alternatives — notably Bitcoin and gold.
“When the dollar’s perceived stability breaks down, it forces the global economy to diversify,” Hougan wrote. “A fractured reserve system will naturally give more influence to hard money assets like Bitcoin.”
This shift appears to already be underway. Reports suggest that Russia and China have begun settling select energy trades in Bitcoin, hinting at growing acceptance of digital assets in sovereign-level finance. The trend aligns with Bitwise’s thesis that global de-dollarization will increase demand for decentralized financial instruments.
Trump’s tariff strategy fuels momentum for crypto assets
Earlier this week, President Trump announced a temporary 90-day suspension on nearly all reciprocal tariffs except those imposed on China, which saw a substantial increase of 125%. The move signaled a strategic pause, but also hinted at a broader economic realignment — one that could further destabilize the dollar’s dominance.
Market analyst and crypto trader Will Clemente shared a similar outlook on social platform X, stating, “Bitcoin will be the fastest horse out of this downturn.” He believes that Bitcoin’s structure — unaffected by earnings reports or supply chain bottlenecks — makes it the ideal asset in times of global uncertainty and deglobalization.
Clemente’s comments underscore the growing sentiment that Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to thrive during financial shake-ups. Its performance in recent weeks supports that view — up over 7.5% in 24 hours to $81,700, despite being 32% off its January 20 all-time high.
The case for Bitcoin is growing stronger
Though some skeptics remain cautious amid economic headwinds, institutions like Bitwise are doubling down on crypto’s long-term value. As the dollar weakens and trade friction persists, the narrative supporting Bitcoin as an alternative financial pillar only gains traction.
For Hougan and others, Bitcoin’s appeal lies in its decentralization, scarcity, and immunity to political manipulation. These qualities could be more attractive than ever in an era of fractured global alliances and shifting monetary strategies.