Bitcoin spikes to $83.5K as tariff pause lifts markets, but traders stay wary
Bitcoin’s price surged to $83,500 on April 9, climbing 5% in under an hour after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day halt on reciprocal tariffs — excluding China. This bullish move aligned with an 8% rally in the S&P 500, pushing Bitcoin above the $83K mark for the first time since April 6.
Despite this rally, BTC derivative indicators reflect caution, as traders weigh macroeconomic developments and shifting U.S. bond yields.
Futures premiums rise, but bulls remain restrained
Bitcoin’s 2-month futures premium momentarily breached the neutral 5% line, indicating a spark of optimism among investors. However, that momentum faded, likely due to uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate policy.
While confidence has improved from March 31’s low of 3%, investors remain hesitant to bet heavily on bullish outcomes, especially after failed attempts to sustain prices above $76,000.
Volatile bond yields fuel unease among Bitcoin traders
Concerns deepened after the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes were published on April 9. The notes revealed fears of stagflation, dampening expectations of interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of rates falling below 4% by mid-September dropped from 97.6% to 69.7% in just one day.
Investor anxiety also stems from swings in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which reflect deeper doubts about America’s fiscal stability. Economist Peter Boockvar noted that yields above 4.40% could signal a pullback by foreign holders of U.S. debt.
Rising yields could escalate government borrowing costs, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and creating ripple effects across crypto markets — including Bitcoin.
Options markets neutralize as traders reassess risks
The 25% delta skew — a key indicator of trader sentiment in options markets — spiked to 12% following China’s retaliatory tariffs. However, this trend swiftly reversed after Trump’s pause announcement, pulling the metric down to a neutral 3%.
This shift suggests that traders are no longer betting heavily on either upward or downward moves, ending a bearish phase that began on March 29.
Retail traders step in, but overall sentiment stays neutral
To assess broader sentiment, analysts look at perpetual futures funding rates. These rates offer insight into leverage demand in real-time markets.
On April 9, Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate rose to 0.9% — the highest since late February. Though this suggests increased retail participation, the rate remains within neutral territory, failing to confirm a definitive bullish trend.
What could turn the tide for BTC bulls?
Despite the strong price rebound and temporary optimism, key Bitcoin derivative indicators continue to show restrained enthusiasm. The XXRP ETF launch, along with a temporary tariff pause, has not fully restored market confidence.
For a sustained bullish shift, traders may need reassurance through macroeconomic stability — particularly a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and clarity from the Federal Reserve on its rate outlook. Until then, Bitcoin appears caught in a wait-and-see phase, with bulls cautiously observing from the sidelines.