Bitcoin Nears Breakout Point as Short Sellers Face $7B Risk
Bitcoin is climbing once again, but signs of sustained profit-taking could limit the rally — unless prices push past $115,000 and squeeze $7 billion in shorts.
Improving U.S. Macro Conditions Fuel BTC Upside
BTC reached $110,700 on May 27 following a strong Wall Street open and news that Trump Media would raise $2.5B to build a Bitcoin treasury.
Looser Financial Conditions Encourage Risk-Taking
Bitcoin’s bullish performance reflects a broader macro shift. Ecoinometrics noted that the U.S. National Financial Conditions Index has entered looser territory.
NFCI Indicates Easier Capital Access for Markets
The NFCI aggregates credit spreads, leverage, and liquidity. When it drops, investors typically move into riskier assets, including Bitcoin and tech stocks.
Bitcoin Benefits from Renewed Liquidity Inflows
According to Ecoinometrics, macro liquidity has returned over the last month, creating a supportive backdrop for speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Pattern Since 2023: Loose Policy → BTC Rally
Ecoinometrics explained that Bitcoin’s recent gains mirror its post-2023 cycle: easing policy followed by investor rotation into high-beta markets like BTC.
Just 2% Below ATH, Bitcoin Could Trigger Squeeze
CoinGlass data suggests that if Bitcoin climbs above $115,000, it could liquidate over $7 billion in short positions — setting off a steep rally.
BTC Short-Squeeze May Be Imminent
With sellers heavily exposed, a breakout could ignite a cascade of liquidations, driving Bitcoin’s price to new all-time highs amid rising demand.
Caution as BTC Enters Overheated Onchain Zone
Despite momentum, Bitcoin is showing signs of overheating. Historical indicators hint at a possible local top and temporary pullback.
BTC Supply in Profit Nears Extreme Levels
The “Supply in Profit Market Bands” metric hit 19.4M BTC in late May — a level seen during previous market tops and sharp corrective phases.
Historical Warning Signs from Profit Tracking
A similar profit level was reached in December 2025, right before a drop from $107K to $93K. This data suggests a pause in BTC’s rally may be near.
Advanced NUSR Indicator Approaches Peak
The Net UTXO Supply Ratio (NUSR) — which gauges the ratio of profitable to unprofitable outputs — is nearing 0.95, a level linked to local tops.
Onchain Red Flags Hint at Increased Volatility
While no crash is certain, prior market cycles show this ratio often leads to selling pressure or at least a sideways correction in BTC pricing.
Conclusion: Volatility Ahead, But Breakout Possible
The data suggests Bitcoin may soon face strong volatility. A successful breakout above $115K could fuel explosive gains — or face another round of profit-taking.